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Do we know who supports and funds it, supplies it with information, and who engineers its movements and comes up with its plans? We may have good estimates and conjectures, but according to many experts we still have a long way to go before we can claim that we have narrowed the information gap in spite of the progress that has been made as a result of the arrest of a number of first-tier leaders from the Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis terrorist organisation.
Some believe that Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis is merely the instrument for the realisation of the aims and objectives of others.
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Certainly, the nature, structure and members of the organisation that the security forces are dealing with in Sinai today are a far cry from those of the local Sinai organisations that existed 15 years ago when Khaled Salem, by profession a dentist from the Sawarka tribe, formed the Tawhid and Jihad group dedicated to targeting Israeli and US tourists in Dahab, Sharm El-Sheikh, Taba and other Sinai resorts in order to embarrass the Egyptian government.
The second phase in the struggle brought a rise in the number of jihadist Salafist organisations on the Egyptian and Palestinian sides of the Rafah border.
Sincedozens of such groups have emerged, locking horns with Hamas, which they rivalled ideologically, as well as in the tunnel trade and smuggling businesses. Those jihadist Salafist groups had counterparts on the Egyptian side of the border and remained active until recently.
Analysts believe that the structure of the organisations has not totally collapsed and that they have merely frozen their activities due to the security measures that have been implemented by the Egyptian government along the border. In the third phase, these organisations merged beneath the umbrella of the Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis group which for three years now has been the chief enemy of the army and police. There are indications that Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis has worked closely with the Muslim Brotherhood and that one of its wings is not only ideologically oriented toward the Brotherhood but is also structurally related in that the Brotherhood would give the Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis and associated tribes free rein to practice smuggling in exchange for promoting Brotherhood interests through their activities in Sinai.
Was it truly dedicated to fighting Israel, as it claimed, or was it always more intent on war against the Egyptian army? According to available information from reliable sources in Sinai, some of the wings of Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis dissolved when it declared its allegiance to the Islamic State IS group.
This applies in particular to the Shadi Al-Maniei wing after its tunnel commerce collapsed. From interviews with its operatives from to it is possible to ascertain that it was affiliated with Al-Qaeda and dedicated primarily to eliminating Egyptian state authority in Sinai.
According to reliable information, Shadi Al-Maniei, the former and last commander of the Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis military wing, managed to escape to Gaza through a secret tunnel. He was accompanied by his uncle, Ibrahim Al-Maniei, one of the main funders of the group. IS, meanwhile, is believed to have actively campaigned to acquire Al-Qaeda affiliates and agents in the area. Indeed, in its first years it succeeded in obtaining 12 Al-Qaeda franchises in ten countries, and one of these was Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis in Sinai.
In addition, a number of other senior operatives were apprehended during their assaults against main and subsidiary security checkpoints in Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid earlier this month.
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In contrast to IS operations in Iraq and Syria, it is clear that the organisation has failed completely in its bid to establish a foothold in Egypt in spite of the many operations it has undertaken in Sinai. According to some estimates locally and internationally, three years ago Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis had around 12, members. Sources in Sinai dispute this figure, however, and maintain it is exaggerated. One source observed that while it is impossible to give a precise estimate, the number of members could not have been as high as this figure indicates.
At all events, it is more important to identify the sources from which the new organisation IS Sinai Province derives its members. These are either from the jihadist Salafist organisations in Gaza that declared their allegiance to IS last year shortly before Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis in Sinai did, or from the Bedouin tribal society in Sinai.
Kamal Habib, an expert on the Islamist groups, has underscored the importance of analysing their evolution in terms of their equipment. You can be the guy who can give her the shoulder to. If she does not need.
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